Wednesday, 20 May 2015

Dominion Opening Theory: Money Matters

This post pulls heavily from sources here and here with some math of my own as well (but it's all the same, pretty elementary combinatorics).

Here, I am just going to look at chances of hitting 5 and 6 coins from various openings. Knowing these can really help to inform how you want to open the game quite a bit, as you plan out your turns 3 and 4. Hitting high coin amounts are definitely not the only factor you should consider - but it is an important one.

The following probabilities assume no funny business or interference from opponents.

Silver/Silver
(Silver/Terminal Silver is Equivalent)
Chance of hitting 6+: 42.4%
Chance of hitting 5+: 91.2%
Chance of hitting two 5+: 14.9%

Terminal Silver/Terminal Silver
Chance of hitting 6+: 17.7%
Chance of hitting 5+: 72.2%
Chance of hitting two 5+: 12.6%
Terminal Collision: 30.3%

Baron/Silver
Chance of hitting 6+: 67.7%
Chance of hitting two 6+:   5.1%
Chance of hitting 5+: 87.4%
Chance of hitting two 5+: 29.0%
Baron drawn and whiffs:  17.7%

Salvager/Silver
Chance of hitting 6+: 24.7%
Chance of hitting 5+: 78.3%
Chance of hitting two 5+: 13.6%
Salvager drawn and whiffs:  17.7%


Feast/Silver
Chance of hitting 6+:   8.8%
Chance of hitting 5+: 94.9%
Chance of hitting two 5+: 34.1%
Chance of 5+5+3:   6.3%

Horse Traders/Silver
Chance of hitting 6+: 38.7%
Chance of hitting 5+: 94.9%
Chance of hitting two 5+: 27.2%

Moat/Silver
(Equivalent to Shanty Town or any other draw 2)
Chance of hitting 6+: 24.6%
Chance of hitting 5+: 94.9%
Chance of hitting two 5+:   0.0%



Oasis/Silver
Chance of hitting 6+: 32.2%
Chance of hitting 5+: 91.8%
Chance of hitting two 5+:   8.2%


Tournamnet/Silver
(Or any other Peddler variant)
Chance of hitting 6+: 36.0%
Chance of hitting 5+: 91.8%
Chance of hitting two 5+:   8.2%

Curse/Silver
(Any Non-economic card)
Chance of hitting 6+:   8.8%
Chance of hitting 5+: 49.4%
Chance of hitting two 5+:   0.0%

Silver/Nothing
(Or with any cantrip that does actual nothing - Pearl Diver is better)
Chance of hitting 6+: 15.2%
Chance of hitting 5+: 60.6%
Chance of hitting two 5+:   0.0%

Tournamnet/Nothing
(Or any other Peddler variant)
Chance of hitting 6+:   7.6%
Chance of hitting 5+: 54.5%
Chance of hitting two 5+:   0.0%

Silver/Great Hall (trashing Hovel)
Chance of hitting 6+: 27.8%
Chance of hitting 5+:  100%
Chance of hitting two 5+:   0.0%
 
 

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